Unvarnished Opinion:
The “Record-Breaking” 2025 Thanksgiving Travel Hype Missed the Mark.
For weeks, the headlines were unavoidable. From AAA’s annual forecast predicting 80M travelers to the major networks, the prediction was unanimous: 2025 would be the busiest Thanksgiving travel season on record.
Now that the dust has settled and the actual transaction data is in, a different reality has emerged.
The "record-breaking" surge? It didn't happen. In fact, our latest Arrivalist TripInsights and SpendInsights data reveal that visitor volume (traveling 50+ miles) was actually down 6.1% YoY.
Even more telling is the financial story. As travelers tightened their belts, spending dropped 9.5%, with declines visible every single day of the holiday week. Even more strikingly, visitor spending in some specific categories plummeted much further: visits by travelers to department stores on Black Friday were down over 30% in Florida, for example.
For weeks, the headlines were unavoidable. From AAA’s annual forecast predicting 80M travelers to the major networks, the prediction was unanimous: 2025 would be the busiest Thanksgiving travel season on record.
Now that the dust has settled and the actual transaction data is in, a different reality has emerged.
The "record-breaking" surge? It didn't happen. In fact, our latest Arrivalist TripInsights and SpendInsights data reveal that visitor volume (traveling 50+ miles) was actually down 6.1% YoY.
Even more telling is the financial story. As travelers tightened their belts, spending dropped 9.5%, with declines visible every single day of the holiday week. Even more strikingly, visitor spending in some specific categories plummeted much further: visits by travelers to department stores on Black Friday were down over 30% in Florida, for example.
So, where did the predictions go wrong, and what does this shift mean for Destination Marketing Organizations as we head into 2026? Let’s break down the real numbers.
So, where did the predictions go wrong, and what does this shift mean for Destination Marketing Organizations as we head into 2026? Let’s break down the real numbers.
The "Record" That Wasn't: Air Travel
The FAA was among the loudest voices, forecasting nearly 50,000 flights per day and predicting a historic surge. Technically, they weren’t wrong - but the victory is a hollow one.
Total passenger volumes going through TSA security from Tuesday, Nov 25 through Monday, Dec 1 were up year-over-year... by 0.08%.
That is effectively flat. The "record growth" was a rounding error. And while news outlets reported jammed terminals, airports weren't the only barometer of travel health.
The Road Trip Reality
The road trip data paints a grimmer picture. Using Arrivalist’s SpendInsights platform, we tracked credit cardholders making fuel purchases at least 50 miles from home, or rental car transactions regardless of where they happened.
Despite predictions of record congestion on major highways, transactions dropped in both key categories:
Fuel Transactions: Down 4.6%.
Rental Car Transactions: Down 3.7% (excluding a Sunday spike caused by flight cancellations).
The Hotel Sector: A Tale of Two Travelers
National CoStar data reinforces the downward trend, with overall hotel demand dipping 1.1% for the week. However, this average hides a critical divide in who is traveling.
Luxury & Upper Upscale:
These properties performed well, seeing increased demand and higher rates nearly every day.
Upscale & Below:
Demand dropped significantly, even as hoteliers lowered rates to attract guests.
The takeaway?
The traveler who can afford $400+ a night is still traveling. The traveler looking for a $150 deal stayed home or cut their trip short. In fact, the only positive demand spikes were on Wednesday and Thursday nights, suggesting travelers rushed in for turkey and rushed right back out. The "long holiday weekend" is shrinking.
The "Record" That Wasn't: Air Travel
The FAA was among the loudest voices, forecasting nearly 50,000 flights per day and predicting a historic surge. Technically, they weren’t wrong - but the victory is a hollow one.
Total passenger volumes going through TSA security from Tuesday, Nov 25 through Monday, Dec 1 were up year-over-year... by 0.08%.
That is effectively flat. The "record growth" was a rounding error. And while news outlets reported jammed terminals, airports weren't the only barometer of travel health.
The Road Trip Reality
The road trip data paints a grimmer picture. Using Arrivalist’s SpendInsights platform, we tracked credit cardholders making fuel purchases at least 50 miles from home, or rental car transactions regardless of where they happened.
Despite predictions of record congestion on major highways, transactions dropped in both key categories:
Fuel Transactions: Down 4.6%.
Rental Car Transactions: Down 3.7% (excluding a Sunday spike caused by flight cancellations).
The Hotel Sector: A Tale of Two Travelers
National CoStar data reinforces the downward trend, with overall hotel demand dipping 1.1% for the week. However, this average hides a critical divide in who is traveling.
Luxury & Upper Upscale:
These properties performed well, seeing increased demand and higher rates nearly every day.
Upscale & Below:
Demand dropped significantly, even as hoteliers lowered rates to attract guests.
The takeaway?
The traveler who can afford $400+ a night is still traveling. The traveler looking for a $150 deal stayed home or cut their trip short. In fact, the only positive demand spikes were on Wednesday and Thursday nights, suggesting travelers rushed in for turkey and rushed right back out. The "long holiday weekend" is shrinking.
The Geography of the Slump: Who Actually Won?
While the national trend was grim, the pain wasn't shared equally. When we focused specifically on out-of-state travel, the "winners" were an exclusive club.
Only three states saw an actual increase in visitor spending: New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont.
However, when looking at volume (cardholders) rather than spend, the map opens up slightly. The big winners were an interesting mix of regions:
The Northeast: NY, NH, VT, plus Pennsylvania.
Sunshine Getaways: Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
The Rockies: Wyoming and Colorado.
Crucially, the timing of the national decline tells us how people traveled. Both volume and spending were down all 7 days of the week, but the drop was sharpest Saturday through Monday. This aligns perfectly with national hotel data suggesting travelers ate their turkey and immediately went home, cutting the "long weekend" short.
The Geography of the Slump: Who Actually Won?
While the national trend was grim, the pain wasn't shared equally. When we focused specifically on out-of-state travel, the "winners" were an exclusive club.
Only three states saw an actual increase in visitor spending: New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont.
However, when looking at volume (cardholders) rather than spend, the map opens up slightly. The big winners were an interesting mix of regions:
The Northeast: NY, NH, VT, plus Pennsylvania.
Sunshine Getaways: Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
The Rockies: Wyoming and Colorado.
Crucially, the timing of the national decline tells us how people traveled. Both volume and spending were down all 7 days of the week, but the drop was sharpest Saturday through Monday. This aligns perfectly with national hotel data suggesting travelers ate their turkey and immediately went home, cutting the "long weekend" short.
The Bright Spots: Fast Food & Cyber Monday
If travelers weren't spending money on hotels or gas, where did the money go?
Fast Food Resilience:
While non-fast-food dining dropped 10%, fast food transactions were only down 2.7%, and actually increased on Thanksgiving Day. Travelers are trading down from sit-down meals to drive-thrus.
The "Stuff" vs. "Experience" Shift:
Perhaps the most alarming stat for the travel industry comes from retail. While travel spending plummeted, overall cardholder spending (including online retail) jumped 15.5% on Cyber Monday.
For years, the industry has banked on the shift from "buying things" to "buying experiences." This data suggests the pendulum might be swinging back.
What This Means for DMOs in 2026
The data isn’t all bad, but it is a wake-up call. The "growth at all costs" era may be cooling, requiring a sharper strategy:
Prioritize Value:
Travelers are price-sensitive again. The resilience of fast food and the drop in mid-tier hotel demand proves that value messaging is critical.
The Luxury Trap:
While luxury travel is growing, it’s a crowded market. Every destination is chasing the high-yield traveler, but that pool is limited. Don't abandon the value-conscious traveler; just change how you talk to them.
Compete with "Stuff":
Your competition isn't just the neighboring state anymore; it may be returning to the pre-COVID landscape that included electronics and jewelry too. You need to remind travelers why an experience is worth more than a product.
The Bright Spots: Fast Food & Cyber Monday
If travelers weren't spending money on hotels or gas, where did the money go?
Fast Food Resilience:
While non-fast-food dining dropped 10%, fast food transactions were only down 2.7%, and actually increased on Thanksgiving Day. Travelers are trading down from sit-down meals to drive-thrus.
The "Stuff" vs. "Experience" Shift:
Perhaps the most alarming stat for the travel industry comes from retail. While travel spending plummeted, overall cardholder spending (including online retail) jumped 15.5% on Cyber Monday.
For years, the industry has banked on the shift from "buying things" to "buying experiences." This data suggests the pendulum might be swinging back.
What This Means for DMOs in 2026
The data isn’t all bad, but it is a wake-up call. The "growth at all costs" era may be cooling, requiring a sharper strategy:
Prioritize Value:
Travelers are price-sensitive again. The resilience of fast food and the drop in mid-tier hotel demand proves that value messaging is critical.
The Luxury Trap:
While luxury travel is growing, it’s a crowded market. Every destination is chasing the high-yield traveler, but that pool is limited. Don't abandon the value-conscious traveler; just change how you talk to them.
Compete with "Stuff":
Your competition isn't just the neighboring state anymore; it may be returning to the pre-COVID landscape that included electronics and jewelry too. You need to remind travelers why an experience is worth more than a product.
Want to see how your specific destination performed against these national trends?
Contact us for a personalized insights report
Want to see how your specific destination performed against these national trends?
Contact us for a personalized insights report
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