Buy now, pay later's travel growth slowed sharply this summer, led by vacation rentals

Travelers started 4% more BNPL plans for trips in the third quarter, down from 35% more a year earlier, while BNPL as a whole kept growing. Vacation rentals, the biggest piece, went flat as Airbnb changed when its guests pay.

Buy now, pay later spent two years working its way onto travel checkout pages. This summer, the part card data can see stopped growing. Travelers started 4.0% more BNPL plans for travel in the third quarter than a year earlier, according to Arrivalist SpendInsights, after starting 34.9% more the year before. Card payments to BNPL lenders for travel came to about $1.67 billion, up 2.6%. In the first quarter they had grown 24%.

The rest of BNPL kept growing. Card payments to all BNPL lenders rose 16% in the third quarter. Within travel, the slowdown is concentrated in vacation rentals, almost all of them Airbnb stays, where new BNPL plans were flat (−0.4%) after growing 30% a year earlier.

To embed a website or widget, add it to the properties panel.

Part of that is the market. BNPL as a whole slowed from 29% growth in the first quarter to 16% in the third. The slowdown shows up just as clearly in a fixed group of cardholders followed since January 2025, and at nearly every large lender, so it is not a quirk of our data. But travel slowed much more, from 24% to about 3%, close to the 2.2% growth of all travel card spending.

One caveat. One of the largest BNPL lenders does not name the merchant on card statements, so its travel lending is invisible in this data. Its own reports suggest its travel business is about as large as everything we can trace, and still growing. Counting it, travel BNPL probably grew by roughly 6% to 13% in the third quarter. That is still a sharp slowdown, but not a full stop.

Vacation rentals are most of it

Travel BNPL grew 14.2% in the third quarter of 2025 and 2.6% this year. Vacation rentals account for 10.3 points of that 11.6-point drop: a year ago they added 8.9 points of growth, this year they took away 1.4. The travel-only lender that finances many airline, cruise and package bookings accounts for another 2.3. Online travel agencies, airlines, cruise lines and the rest grew 26% together and added more growth than a year earlier, though from a base of only about $290 million a year earlier.

New plans tell the same story. Vacation rental plans were flat; other travel plans grew 8%, down from 39%, and first payments on them rose 19%.

Airbnb changed when its guests pay

On Aug. 14, 2025, Airbnb launched Reserve Now, Pay Later, which lets US guests book eligible stays with $0 upfront and pay before the free-cancellation window closes. By the fourth quarter, the company said, more than 70% of eligible bookings used it.

The option shows up in card data as a change in timing. Among Airbnb bookings paid in a single charge in May to July whose trip we could identify, 17.7% were charged 9 to 14 days before the trip this year, against 13.9% in 2025 and 13.8% in 2024. Reservations paid in two parts fell to 20.8% in the second quarter from 28.2% a year earlier. Airbnb's direct card charges, which grew 1% to 5% a year through November 2025, grew 8% to 16% a year from December 2025 to August 2026, partly because charges moved from booking months into trip months.

What the data does not yet show is guests trading a loan for the platform's option. The largest merchant-naming lender's share of card spending at Airbnb ran above the year before from January to April and below it every month since May. In the third quarter it fell to 5.24% from 5.91%, while total card spending at Airbnb grew 9%, and much of that drop may be the same shift in timing, with more of the summer's direct charges now landing in the summer. Over the 12 months to September, its share rose slightly, to 5.0% from 4.9%, and its Airbnb payments grew 13%. Vacation rental BNPL has stalled, but the data does not yet show it being replaced.

Younger travelers are most exposed

The slowdown matters most for younger travelers. Adults 18 to 24 put 47% of their travel BNPL into vacation rentals, against 29% for those 65 and over, who lean on the travel-only lender for flights, cruises and packages (56% of their travel BNPL). Younger adults are also still taking it up fastest: 0.72% of 18-to-24-year-olds made a travel BNPL payment in the third quarter, up from 0.63% a year earlier, the largest gain of any age group.

What to watch

Two things will show whether this is a pause or a turn. The lender that card data cannot trace reports its July to September results in early November, which will show how much its travel growth slowed. And the fourth quarter, once this summer's shift in payment timing has passed, will show whether vacation rental BNPL starts growing again or whether travelers have started to use the platform's own option instead of a loan.

For destinations, the takeaway is that BNPL's growth in travel has slowed sharply while the ways travelers put off paying multiply: booking platforms' own options, and lenders whose travel lending card data cannot see.

────────────────

Spending: Arrivalist SpendInsights, estimates based on US credit and debit card transactions, weighted and scaled to the population, first quarter of 2024 to third quarter of 2026. The third quarter of 2026 is preliminary. Growth compares each quarter with the same quarter a year earlier. BNPL totals exclude a checkout platform's installment plans, financed by a BNPL lender and billed under the merchant's name.

Repayments and new plans: BNPL appears on a card as the cardholder's installment payments to the lender, dated by repayment. New plans are counted from a plan's first charge, with no charge from the same card, lender and merchant in the previous 45 days; for monthly plans the first charge comes about a month after purchase. The travel-only lender is left out of new-plan counts because its plans cannot be separated.

Installments without a merchant name: the largest merchant-naming lender bills a growing share of later installments under a generic descriptor. We add back installments that follow a named charge on the same card with a matching amount 10 to 50 days later, net of the rate of coincidental matches: about $48 million of vacation rental and $6 million of other travel installments in the third quarter of 2026, and $15 million and $2 million a year earlier, with the same method applied to every quarter. These are minimum adjustments. As reported, before them, travel BNPL grew 23.2% in the first quarter of 2026 and 0.4% in the third, and vacation rentals −8.0% in the third.

Travel: a lender that only finances travel, plus payments through lenders that name the merchant when it is a vacation rental, online travel agency, airline, hotel brand, cruise line, attraction or tour, or car rental company. Lenders that do not name the merchant count toward BNPL totals but not toward travel, so travel BNPL is understated. Event tickets are excluded. A payment naming a seller does not mean the seller offers that lender at checkout, because some lenders' cards work almost anywhere. All travel card spending is all card spending at airlines, hotels and lodging, travel agencies and tour operators, car rental, cruise lines, and attractions.

Coverage: the card panel shrank by about 4.5% net between the third quarters of 2025 and 2026 as some card portfolios left it; totals are estimated to correct for this. As a check, we followed a fixed sample of about 1.85 million cards with activity in every month from January 2025 to September 2026. Its growth rates run higher, because cards that stay active are the ones taking up BNPL, so we use it only for direction: on it, BNPL as a whole slowed from the second to the third quarter by as much as on all cards.

Points of growth: each category's change in spending divided by all travel BNPL a year earlier. Figures are rounded.

Airbnb timing: single-charge Airbnb bookings of $100 or more first charged in May to July, with the trip taken as the cardholder's next in-person spending at least 80 km from home within 90 days (about three quarters of bookings have one); a 1-in-20 sample of about 66,000 bookings. The lender's share of Airbnb spending is its payments naming Airbnb divided by those payments plus Airbnb's direct charges, adjusted for installments without a merchant name. Timing shares are of bookings with an identified trip. Total Airbnb card spending growth includes both. Reserve Now, Pay Later announcement (Aug. 14, 2025) and fourth quarter 2025 shareholder letter (adoption by eligible bookings, global gross booking value).

Untraceable lender: the lender names the merchant on only a small share of its card payments, none of them travel. In January 2026, one of the largest online travel groups made it the exclusive BNPL option for US hotel and package bookings; existing customers switching to it explain 0.4 to 0.7 of a point of the slowdown, by our estimate. For April to June 2026 the lender reported purchase volume of $14.1 billion, up 36%, with travel and ticketing 15%, up 28%. Its payments in our data are its loan repayments. The range applies that share to them, with travel growth of 15% to 28% and travel taken as 40% to 80% of travel and ticketing, added to the adjusted travel BNPL we can trace; its payments in our data slowed in the third quarter, so its travel growth may have slowed too. The range is positive under every assumption we tried: the narrowest case gives +6.0% and the widest, all of the category at 35% growth, +17.1%. Switching is measured by comparing the lender's spending per person among earlier BNPL users of the travel group's sites with earlier BNPL users of vacation rentals; it counts existing users only.

Age: age comes in 10-year bands from 25; about 36% of cardholders have no age on file and are left out of the age figures. Adoption is the share of adults in an age group who made a travel BNPL payment in the quarter.

────────────────

Spending: Arrivalist SpendInsights, estimates based on US credit and debit card transactions, weighted and scaled to the population, first quarter of 2024 to third quarter of 2026. The third quarter of 2026 is preliminary. Growth compares each quarter with the same quarter a year earlier. BNPL totals exclude a checkout platform's installment plans, financed by a BNPL lender and billed under the merchant's name.

Repayments and new plans: BNPL appears on a card as the cardholder's installment payments to the lender, dated by repayment. New plans are counted from a plan's first charge, with no charge from the same card, lender and merchant in the previous 45 days; for monthly plans the first charge comes about a month after purchase. The travel-only lender is left out of new-plan counts because its plans cannot be separated.

Installments without a merchant name: the largest merchant-naming lender bills a growing share of later installments under a generic descriptor. We add back installments that follow a named charge on the same card with a matching amount 10 to 50 days later, net of the rate of coincidental matches: about $48 million of vacation rental and $6 million of other travel installments in the third quarter of 2026, and $15 million and $2 million a year earlier, with the same method applied to every quarter. These are minimum adjustments. As reported, before them, travel BNPL grew 23.2% in the first quarter of 2026 and 0.4% in the third, and vacation rentals −8.0% in the third.

Travel: a lender that only finances travel, plus payments through lenders that name the merchant when it is a vacation rental, online travel agency, airline, hotel brand, cruise line, attraction or tour, or car rental company. Lenders that do not name the merchant count toward BNPL totals but not toward travel, so travel BNPL is understated. Event tickets are excluded. A payment naming a seller does not mean the seller offers that lender at checkout, because some lenders' cards work almost anywhere. All travel card spending is all card spending at airlines, hotels and lodging, travel agencies and tour operators, car rental, cruise lines, and attractions.

Coverage: the card panel shrank by about 4.5% net between the third quarters of 2025 and 2026 as some card portfolios left it; totals are estimated to correct for this. As a check, we followed a fixed sample of about 1.85 million cards with activity in every month from January 2025 to September 2026. Its growth rates run higher, because cards that stay active are the ones taking up BNPL, so we use it only for direction: on it, BNPL as a whole slowed from the second to the third quarter by as much as on all cards.

Points of growth: each category's change in spending divided by all travel BNPL a year earlier. Figures are rounded.

Airbnb timing: single-charge Airbnb bookings of $100 or more first charged in May to July, with the trip taken as the cardholder's next in-person spending at least 80 km from home within 90 days (about three quarters of bookings have one); a 1-in-20 sample of about 66,000 bookings. The lender's share of Airbnb spending is its payments naming Airbnb divided by those payments plus Airbnb's direct charges, adjusted for installments without a merchant name. Timing shares are of bookings with an identified trip. Total Airbnb card spending growth includes both. Reserve Now, Pay Later announcement (Aug. 14, 2025) and fourth quarter 2025 shareholder letter (adoption by eligible bookings, global gross booking value).

Untraceable lender: the lender names the merchant on only a small share of its card payments, none of them travel. In January 2026, one of the largest online travel groups made it the exclusive BNPL option for US hotel and package bookings; existing customers switching to it explain 0.4 to 0.7 of a point of the slowdown, by our estimate. For April to June 2026 the lender reported purchase volume of $14.1 billion, up 36%, with travel and ticketing 15%, up 28%. Its payments in our data are its loan repayments. The range applies that share to them, with travel growth of 15% to 28% and travel taken as 40% to 80% of travel and ticketing, added to the adjusted travel BNPL we can trace; its payments in our data slowed in the third quarter, so its travel growth may have slowed too. The range is positive under every assumption we tried: the narrowest case gives +6.0% and the widest, all of the category at 35% growth, +17.1%. Switching is measured by comparing the lender's spending per person among earlier BNPL users of the travel group's sites with earlier BNPL users of vacation rentals; it counts existing users only.

Age: age comes in 10-year bands from 25; about 36% of cardholders have no age on file and are left out of the age figures. Adoption is the share of adults in an age group who made a travel BNPL payment in the quarter.

New travel data in your inbox monthly

By clicking “Submit”, you agree to our privacy policy and terms of service

Made with 🧡 in Miami, FL · Fernandina Beach, FL · Budapest HUN · Morrisville, NC · Bauru BRA · Pittsburgh, PA · Clark, NJ · Coos Bay, OR · Shirley, NY · Chicago, IL · Everett, MA · Buffalo, NY · Astoria, NY · Cincinnati, OH · Athens, GRC · Orlando, FL · Grand Rapids, MI

New travel data in your inbox monthly

By clicking “Submit”, you agree to our privacy policy and terms of service

Made with 🧡 in Miami, FL · Fernandina Beach, FL · Budapest HUN · Morrisville, NC · Bauru BRA · Pittsburgh, PA · Clark, NJ · Coos Bay, OR · Shirley, NY · Chicago, IL · Everett, MA · Buffalo, NY · Astoria, NY · Cincinnati, OH · Athens, GRC · Orlando, FL · Grand Rapids, MI

New travel data in your inbox monthly

By clicking “Submit”, you agree to our privacy policy and terms of service

Made with 🧡 in Miami, FL · Fernandina Beach, FL · Budapest HUN · Morrisville, NC · Bauru BRA · Pittsburgh, PA · Clark, NJ · Coos Bay, OR · Shirley, NY · Chicago, IL · Everett, MA · Buffalo, NY · Astoria, NY · Cincinnati, OH · Athens, GRC · Orlando, FL · Grand Rapids, MI